A job-ready supply of ~10,000 credentialed electricians per year against demand approaching
~100,000 per year, structurally widening. Government data anchors the replacement floor; the
AI / data-center / fab buildout is modeled bottom-up on top of it. Modeled trajectories are flagged.
01
Supply vs. Demand
Annual, journey-level · base case
02
The Gap Is Widening
Annual unfilled seats · 2022 → 2030 (modeled)
Trajectory is modeled. Endpoints anchored to current ~87K gap and the published cumulative envelope; intermediate years illustrative.
03
Retirement Wave
Cumulative electrician retirements, 10-yr · ~20K/yr
04
Employment Projection
Total employed · BLS 2024 → 2034 (+9%)
BLS Employment Projections (Aug 2025). This is the organic-growth FLOOR — it excludes the AI/fab step-change layered into demand above.
05
Economic Impact by Industry
Unfilled seats & direct cost of vacancy · base-case gap allocated by BLS OEWS employment share
06
Total Direct Cost
Lost / delayed output · $B per year
Per unfilled seat
~$150K–400K/yr
07
Total Multiplier Loss
Downstream jobs blocked nationally · per year
SOURCES & METHOD. Demand built in three layers: replacement floor + organic growth (BLS Employment Projections / OEWS, 2024 base) plus an incremental project-driven layer modeled bottom-up from 2025–26 signals (hyperscaler capex ~$700–725B for 2026; data-center load 25–33 GW → 70–100+ GW by 2030 per S&P / McKinsey / Goldman / LBNL; CHIPS fabs; IBEW clean-energy project tracker; DOE grid estimates). Supply from NCES IPEDS (CIP 46.0302), DOL RAPIDS, and NECA. Cost-of-vacancy and multiplier figures are labeled estimates with stated assumptions (BEA value-added per FTE; IMPLAN Type-I multipliers 1.6–2.2, weighted to 3–5× on critical-path AI/fab builds). Modeled trajectories (panels 02, 04) are flagged in-panel. Treat the range and direction as robust; treat any single point estimate as directional. — Full sourcing in the companion brief.